Tuesday 25 September 2012

U.S. Is Headed For Recession In 2012 Says Shilling

A renowned doom and gloom-er is at it again. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling and Co., says the U.S. could fall back into recession in 2012.

“Let’s face it, we’re in a weakening economy in this country and globally,” Shilling told CNBC yesterday. “By the end of the year, I rather suspect, all the inflation fears will be back to deflation concerns.”

“I think we’re probably headed for a recession next year.”

Less than sunny predictions are nothing new for Shilling, who is known for his bearish outlook. He has been predicting very slow growth in recent months, is notably down on the housing market and recently published a book titled The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies For A Decade Of Slow Growth And Deflation. Still, he has been right in the past. Shilling was one of the first economists to forecast the recession of 1969, foresaw the end of inflation in the late 1970s and was among the bears in 2008.

On the heels of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech yesterday, Shilling also spoke on CNBC about QE2 and the possibility of QE3.

“The point is that QE2 didn’t really work. What it did is the opposite – it pushed up gasoline prices and grocery prices for the lower tier, and that’s the ones they really wanted to help,” said Shilling. Citing the failure of the latest round of quantitative easing, he said that he thinks a third round of QE is unlikely. Perhaps the anecdotes from last weekend’s economic meeting of the minds aren’t totally correct.

Since he doesn’t believe QE3 is coming, Shilling doesn’t appear to have much faith in stocks.

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